Modeling of Future Land Use Dynamics in Biodiversity Hotspot Area of Southern Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia: Insights from CA- Markov and Intensity Analysis Models

Abstract

Abstract

Protected areas (PAs) are vital to biodiversity conservation and ecological services. However, in Ethiopia, human-induced land use change(LUC) and degradation significantly daunting PAs’ functionality including Nechsar National Park (NNP), part of Somalia‑Masai Center of Endemism and the richest in biodiversity. A detailed analysis of future LUC using advanced prediction and change analysis models is necessary to halt the existing problems and design practicable long‑term management plans. Thus, our study quantified the complete processes of future LUC in NNP from 2020 - 2040 and 2040 - 2060 by integrating CA‑Markov and three‑level intensity analysis models. For LUC prediction, Landsat imageries of 1986, 2002 and 2020, four explanatory variables and TerrSet_20 software were utilized. Kappa Index was applied to model validation and resulted in (K_standard=0.893). Results revealed a continued reduction in forest, grass and woodland with 19%, 26% and 70% net loss, respectively and expansion with positive net changes in other land types from 2020 to 2060. Results of intensity analysis show the predicted overall change prevailed rapidly(1.26%) in 1^st and slowly (1.11%) in 2^nd time interval. The category and transition levels indicate the gain predicted for bush/shrub, the most active and intensively targeted woodland and grassland. Forest’s active loss is expected to be targeted by cultivated and woodland. Generally, this study provides adequate information for stakeholders to understand the intensity of future LUC and develop targeted management plans for NNP. It also shows that the CA‑Markov model is essential to predict LUC, but integrating with intensity analysis is necessary to examine the underlying characteristics of land changes and identify the reasons for the changes.

Keywords: Biodiversity hotspot, Land transition, Nechsar