Analysis of lowland smallholders’ vulnerability to climate change in the rift valley areas of Arba Minch Zuria district, southern Ethiopia

Abstract

The study assessed smallholders’ vulnerability to climate change and variability, which challenges development in rural-lowland kebeles of Arba Minch Zuriya District, Southern Ethiopia. 360-questionnaire survey households were the main sources from which primary data was gathered. Both purposive (non-probability) and systematic random probability sampling techniques were used to select the respondents. Secondary data were obtained from relevant published and unpublished materials. The livelihood vulnerability index (LVI), the LVI-IPCC on Climate Variability, and descriptive statistics were used to analyse the extent of smallholders’ vulnerability to climate variability. The results revealed a significant increment in the average annual temperature, no clear pattern in annual rainfall, and higher rainfall variability. Adaptive capacity (0.5139), sensitivity (0.683), and exposure (0.5043) were the three contributing factors weighted while quantifying the smallholders’ vulnerability extent. Technically, 3 dimensions of livelihood vulnerability categorized into 5 major components with their index values for demographic profile (0.5375), livelihood strategies (0.448), infrastructure and social networks (0.5564), health (0.3252), and food and water (0.4242) were used to calculate smallholders’ vulnerability to climate change and variability. The result of the LVI-IPCC was found to be (0.056). Resilience-building and adaptation methods are critical for minimizing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers. It is suggested that agriculture specialists and other concerned stakeholders should work together to develop lowland-appropriate rural livelihood vulnerability reduction measures.

Keywords: Adaptive capacity; Arba Minch Zuriya; Climate change; LVI; Smallholders